De Hypotheker expects that short-term mortgage loan interest rates (up to ten years fixed) will remain stable until the beginning of 2020, partly due to low inflation. If inflation and the economy do not pick up, there will be little change here. With regard to long-term interest rates (10 years or more fixed), the expectation is that this will remain stable in the short term. This is still being kept low by the massive purchase of bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB). This monthly purchase (à 15 billion euros worth of bonds) will stop in January, which can lead to higher interest rates in the long term. De Hypotheker expects the long-term mortgage loan interest rate to rise cautiously in the second half of 2019. Provided the economy picks up, otherwise it will remain stable for the time being. Whether the economy continues to grow is still the question. Both The Dutch Bank and the Central Planning Bureau expect lower economic growth.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, interest rates (short and long), both for NHG mortgage loans and mortgage loans without NHG, remained virtually the same, compared to the previous quarter.
Although De Hypotheker’s expectation is that the rise in interest rates will take some time to come, there are other uncertainties that can also influence an eventual increase. The advisory chain mentions the Italian budget plans, the question of what kind of brexit we get and the social unrest in France. Partly because of this uncertainty, and because interest rates are now extremely low, De Hypotheker advises to fix interest rates for a longer period of time. How long? That depends on your personal situation.